A segment of climate scientists now suggests that the most pessimistic global warming scenario, known as RCP 8.5, is becoming significantly less likely than previously assumed. This shift is attributed to the rapid expansion of renewable energy technologies, the tightening of climate policies, and a slowdown in the growth rate of global carbon emissions.
According to sea-news.az the RCP 8.5 scenario previously projected a global temperature increase of 4.5–5°C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. However, updated assessments indicate that emissions are now growing at a slower pace—around 1% annually—which makes this worst-case scenario increasingly unrealistic.
Nevertheless, experts emphasize that future climate outcomes remain highly dependent on both emission trajectories and the sensitivity of the climate system. As a result, medium-range and more probable scenarios are now considered more relevant for scientific and policy analysis.
At the same time, researchers caution that significant uncertainties remain, and the exact impacts of climate change cannot yet be predicted with full precision.
