The core message of the report is that the closure of a strategic passage such as the Strait of Hormuz would create not only regional but also global chain reactions across the economy.
The risks highlighted by UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) are grouped into several key areas.
According to sea-news.az reports that this is stated in a UNCTAD analysis. First, countries with high energy dependence would be the most heavily affected. In particular, 65 out of 75 least developed economies rely on oil imports. This means that rising prices would directly increase fuel costs and force governments to either cut social services or reduce energy subsidies.
Second, the scale of impact is extremely wide — it is estimated that around 983 million people could be affected directly or indirectly. The impact would not be limited to fuel prices alone, but would spread across the entire economy through inflation, higher food prices, and increased transport costs.
Third, not only importing countries but also oil-exporting nations would suffer indirect losses. A slowdown in global economic growth would reduce overall demand and create instability in financial markets.
Scenarios such as oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel are already close to a global economic shock level, potentially leading to currency pressure, interest rate hikes, and rising debt burdens.
In short, such a blockade scenario would shift the energy market from a “local crisis” to a “global economic risk,” with the most vulnerable countries becoming the first links in this chain reaction.
