Restrictions on vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continue to have a significant impact on the global energy market and regional economies.
Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, stated that if oil prices rise to $125 per barrel, an additional $25 billion would need to be allocated from the state budget. According to him, this would deal a serious blow to the Turkish economy, while a prolonged crisis would also put the economic future of Europe at risk.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key route for crude oil exports from the Gulf region to open seas, is currently experiencing limited navigation, creating major disruptions for the global economy.
However, the strait has not been fully closed. It was reported that a tanker with a capacity of 2 million barrels, operated by Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan, loaded crude oil in Saudi Arabia and successfully transited the strait without obstruction, with authorization from both Iran and the United States.
Due to the current situation, daily oil exports from Gulf countries — Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain — have fallen from 12.32 million barrels to 7.83 million barrels.
Regional tensions are expected to cause up to $15.27 billion in losses in oil revenues for Gulf states. The combined value of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) currently waiting on vessels in the strait is estimated at at least $10.7 billion.
Unreleased oil and gas supplies are creating shortages in the market, further accelerating price increases.
At the same time, it is noted that the countries most affected by the situation are the parties involved in the conflict itself.
Iran is reportedly facing a critical fuel shortage, with only 12 days of gasoline reserves remaining. The United States is also experiencing rising energy and consumer prices.
Despite all developments, no signs of de-escalation have been observed among the parties so far.
