Rising global sea levels through the end of the 21st century could deprive humanity of approximately $164.5 billion annually in natural resources and ecosystem services.
Sea-news.az reports citing the journal PNAS Nexus, that scientists have calculated the economic value of natural services at risk from coastal flooding. These services include water purification, coastal erosion protection, climate regulation, and fisheries maintenance.
Under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 climate scenario, annual losses by the year 2100 could reach $164.46 billion in 2020 constant prices. Depending on the specific warming trajectory, projections range between $130 billion and $339 billion per year.
China faces the highest projected absolute losses at $36.66 billion per year, followed by Myanmar ($12.57 billion), Brazil ($11.48 billion), Russia ($10.68 billion), and Vietnam ($7.67 billion).
Nations with low-lying coastlines and extensive river deltas—such as the Netherlands, Egypt, and the Bahamas—are expected to be among the most vulnerable in terms of the proportional loss of ecosystem services.
The study highlights coastal wetlands as particularly sensitive to sea-level rise. Researchers also identified a significant disparity: countries making minimal historical contributions to greenhouse gas emissions face disproportionately high per capita losses of natural services.
The authors emphasize that these figures represent a scenario-based projection of annual ecosystem service losses rather than immediate direct damage. The study’s findings are intended to inform coastal defense strategies, natural ecosystem restoration, and the strategic allocation of international climate aid to vulnerable regions.
