Tightness in refined petroleum product supply driven by the need to complete deferred refinery maintenance operations could persist until 2027. This scenario may also lead to a contraction in export volumes.
Sea-news.az reports citing leading U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs, that this assessment was published in a recent report.
According to the bank’s analysts, following deferred maintenance turnarounds in the U.S., the global daily volume of planned refinery maintenance has declined by 1.7 million barrels year-on-year. Increased maintenance schedules in Asia, particularly in India and South Korea—major suppliers of diesel fuel and jet kerosene—could reduce refined product exports by the second quarter of 2027. Fuel inventories across key trading hubs remain low, which limits buffers to mitigate the impact of potential supply disruptions.
Analysts also point out that the slow recovery of fuel exports from the Gulf serves as a supportive factor for market prices. Ship-to-ship (STS) transfer operations have helped sustain crude oil transport volumes.
However, analysts emphasize that applying STS transfer methods to refined products presents greater difficulties due to their higher flammability and varied technical specifications. These factors make off-shore vessel-to-vessel transfers outside the Gulf considerably more complex.
