If the renewed escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz hinders maritime transport, it could delay the recovery of oil supplies in the Middle East.
According to sea-news.az that this information comes from a statement by Goldman Sachs, one of the leading U.S. investment banks.
It is reported that in June, crude oil production in the Gulf remained 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Middle Eastern producers had begun restarting wells that were closed over the past month. However, potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could slow down this production recovery.
According to Goldman Sachs, oil shipments from the Gulf have fallen to approximately 70 percent of normal levels following the recent tanker attacks. During the first 10 days after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, shipments had recovered to more than 80 percent of pre-war levels.
The bank stated that the risks to oil flows from the Gulf and to prices are currently twofold. Accordingly, if 60-day negotiations continue, guarantees are provided to ship operators, and a new concession is granted for the sale of Iranian oil, shipments are expected to recover by the end of July. However, if negotiations fail and tanker attacks increase, oil flows could decrease further.
According to analysts, the recent tanker attacks demonstrate that transit risks through the Strait of Hormuz remain high, and uncertainty regarding the future of the ceasefire will lead shipowners to be cautious about transiting the strait, which will have a negative impact on oil flows in the short term. In recent weeks, heavy oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been temporarily halted, and shipowners are expected to act with greater caution.
The renewed rise in tensions between Washington and Tehran has shaken global energy markets. Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near standstill following two days of ongoing attacks. On Wednesday, a total of 14 cargo ships transited the strait in both directions. This figure is the lowest daily level observed since the temporary peace agreement reached in mid-June.
