Which sectors to dominate global oil demand?

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    By 2040, oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each account for around a quarter of the world’s energy, according to BP’s 2018 Energy Outlook.

    More than 40 percent of the overall increase in energy demand is met by renewable energy, said the report.

    “Oil demand grows over much of the Outlook, although it plateaus in the later years. All the demand growth comes from emerging economies,” said BP.

    This is while the growth in supply is driven by US tight oil in the early part of the Outlook, with OPEC taking over from the late 2020s as Middle East producers adopt a strategy of growing market share, BP analysts believe.

    “The transport sector continues to dominate global oil demand, accounting for more than half of the overall growth. Most of the growth in energy demand from transport, which flattens off towards the end of the Outlook, comes from non-road (largely air, marine, and rail) and trucks, with small increases from cars and motorbikes,” said the report.

    After 2030, the main source of growth in the demand for oil is from non-combusted uses, particularly as a feedstock for petrochemicals, according to BP.

    Natural gas grows strongly over the period, supported by increasing levels of industrialization and power demand in fast-growing emerging economies, continued coal-to-gas switching, and the increasing availability of low-cost supplies in North America and the Middle East, said the report.

    By 2040, the US accounts for almost one quarter of global gas production, and global LNG supplies will more than double, BP analysts believe.

    The sustained growth in LNG supplies greatly increases the availability of gas around the world, with LNG volumes overtaking inter-regional pipeline shipments in the early 2020s, said the report.

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